About the event

MONTENEGRO IS A TESTING GROUND FOR AUTHORITARIAN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS AROUND THE WORLD

Authoritarians have employed evolving strategies to subvert democratic norms and practice worldwide. By testing and perfecting strategies to amplify their influence—especially in democratically vulnerable settings like the Western Balkans—authoritarians are able to “exert disproportionate influence on political outcomes with moderate investments.” It also allows these malign actors to apply these lessons globally. Despite the gravity of this challenge, civil society can develop and invest in the best practices and tools that are needed to combat authoritarian influence at local and international levels.

In October, the International Forum for Democratic Studies released a report authored by Montenegro’s Vanja Ćalović Marković (MANS). She participated in the launch event with Czechia’s Martin Hála (Sinopsis) and Bulgaria’s Martin Vladimirov (Center for the Study of Democracy). Tanja Dramac Jiries (NED) and Kevin Sheives (International Forum for Democratic Studies) also participated in the discussion.

According to Vanja Ćalović Marković, authoritarian actors based in Russia and China have exploited Montenegro’s small size as well as its economic and political vulnerabilities to exert malign influence in the country. She also argues that Moscow has drawn on a shared cultural and religious identity to garner public support for their anti-democratic messaging. Finally, she cites Serbia’s role as a conduit for Russian influence as an additional variable that makes this issue particularly intractable and widespread within the region.

Vanja Ćalović Marković also contends that authoritarian actors take advantage of Montenegro’s rampant corruption to sow their malign influence. Through their capture of elites and state institutions, authoritarians “cultivate loyalty” among political elites and oversee business or investment deals that bypass regulatory scrutiny, further enhancing their influence on key democratic institutions.

Unfortunately, Montenegro’s weaker institutions as well as its struggles with corruption and elite capture make the country more susceptible to authoritarian influence operations. These activities can degrade the country’s democracy “by sowing mistrust in fundamental institutions like the media and government, deepening societal divisions, and undermining the protections that democracies afford their citizens.” Therefore, countering authoritarian influence operations is vital to improving citizens’ quality of life that is often hampered by the economic opportunism of coopted elites and weakened institutions.

Dissatisfaction with the slow pace of EU accession and integration has made the environment in Montenegro, among other countries in the Western Balkans, more fertile for authoritarian influence. Tanja Dramac Jiries expanded upon this problem in her remarks during the launch event, explaining that this frustration has undermined the EU’s appeal and pushed some societies away from EU accession talks. She also stressed that “Beijing and Moscow are creating false alternatives to the EU project,” further enhancing their impact.

The consequences of successful authoritarian influence campaigns are significant. Not only do they threaten democratic systems, their effects also stretch beyond any single nation’s borders. As Vanja Ćalović Marković writes, “The lessons gleaned from malign influence operations in Montenegro can be drawn upon by powerful authoritarian players globally.”

Martin Vladimirov echoed these concerns in his remarks during the launch event. Citing instances of authoritarian influence operations in Bolivia and Venezuela, he stressed that the Kremlin uses the same “playbook” across country contexts, allowing it to “act through an axis of different authoritarian powers across the world” to amplify its messaging and promote its worldview. This strategy strengthens the Kremlin’s influence campaigns’ effectiveness and reach.

Despite the scale of this challenge, civil society actors and democratic governments can employ and implement initiatives to combat authoritarian influence on a global scale. In this vein, it is particularly important for civil society and international partners to devise swift and agile responses, and to develop the capacity to learn and adapt quickly. Civil society strategies must also be rooted in innovation, collaboration, and sustainability in order to be successful.

Drawing from his experience in Czechia, Martin Hala expanded on these ideas further and emphasized the importance of international civil society organization networks in the effort to rebuff authoritarian influence. He maintained that authoritarian influence is a “global phenomenon and cannot be fully understood within the constraints of the nation-state.” Particularly since both China and Russia use similar “authoritarian playbooks” around the world, the tactics and tools used to counter such influence in one country can be applied to others and employed on an international scale.

In her report, Vanja Ćalović Marković offers five recommendations for civil society to combat authoritarian influence more effectively:

• Develop early warning systems and response plans;
• Advocate for strengthening transparency, accountability, and electoral integrity;
• Invest in sustained long-term monitoring and efforts to expose threats to democracy;
• Cooperate with journalists to enhance capacity, outreach, and communication;
• Build global coalitions around shared democratic values.

As Vanja Ćalović Marković emphasizes, “it is crucial to empower and mobilize democratic forces by providing timely and specialized support to civil society to combat foreign authoritarian interference in democratic systems.”

The time is ripe for global civil society to develop and implement its own “democratic playbook” to help under-resourced NGOs combat authoritarian influence and establish collaborative information-sharing platforms to protect democratic norms and values.

about the speakers

Vanja Ćalović Marković is the executive director of MANS, a nongovernmental organization that counters corruption and organized crime in Montenegro. She is also a member of the Balkan Trust for Democracy’s advisory board and has worked for the Government of Montenegro’s Council for Fighting High Level Corruption, among other positions both in government as well as various civil society organizations. Vanja writes widely on the topics related to corruption, organized crime, and authoritarian influence.

Christopher Walker is the vice president for studies and analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy. He oversees the multidimensional department that is responsible for NED’s analytical and thought leadership efforts, which pursues its goals through several interrelated initiatives: International Forum for Democratic Studies; the Journal of Democracy; the Reagan-Fascell fellowship program for international democracy activists; and the Center for International Media Assistance. Prior to joining the NED, Walker was vice president for strategy and analysis at Freedom House.

Tanja Dramac Jiries, Ph.D. is deputy director for Europe at the National Endowment for Democracy. Tanja oversees over $35 million in democracy assistance to more than 350 civil society organizations, think tanks, and independent media across Europe. She has 14+ years of progressive experience providing strategic leadership in challenging political and security environments. She is also a political scientist and analyst of European and international affairs with a PhD cum laude from Scuola Superiore Sant’ Anna.

Kevin Sheives serves as the deputy director of the International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy. He helps oversee the Forum’s staff and research on authoritarian influence, disinformation, emerging technology, and transnational kleptocracy. Kevin served nearly fifteen years in the U.S. government with the State Department’s China Desk and the Global Engagement Center, and in positions at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Department of Defense, and the U.S. House of Representatives.

Martin Vladimirov is the director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), a European public policy institute, where he focuses on structural geoeconomic shifts and European energy and climate security. He has been also exploring the threat from the malign Russian economic influence over the past decade co-authoring the Kremlin Playbook series covering Europe, Latin America and Africa. Martin is also managing the Energy and Climate Security Risk Index and spearheading CSD’s research on strengthening the sanctions regime against Russia.

Martin Hála, Ph.D. is the founder and director of Sinopsis.cz, a China-focused research project based in Prague, Czech Republic. He is also a researcher and lecturer at the Department of Chinese Studies, Charles University, Prague. Educated in Prague, Shanghai, Berkeley and Harvard, he has taught at Universities in Prague, Bratislava and Lisbon, and led projects in various countries in Asia. Prior to founding Sinopsis, he was the Regional Manager for Asia Pacific at the Open Society Foundations.

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